Comparison of Two Detailed Models of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

The success of control programs for mosquito-­borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-­by-­side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito?s biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbedconditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivityto environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions.Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (director delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions.Fil: Legros, Mathieu. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gould, Fred. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Lloyd, Alun L.. National Institutes of Health; Estados Unido

Large-Scale Release of Campylobacter Draft Genomes: Resources for Food Safety and Public Health from the 100K Pathogen Genome Project.

Campylobacter is a food-associated bacterium and a leading cause of foodborne illness worldwide, being associated with poultry in the food supply. This is the initial public release of 202 Campylobacter genome sequences as part of the 100K Pathogen Genome Project. These isolates represent global genomic diversity in the Campylobacter genus

Comparative validation of the IPAQ and the 7-Day PAR among women diagnosed with breast cancer

BACKGROUND: The criterion-related validity and measurement bias of the long form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was compared to the 7-Day Physical Activity Recall (PAR). METHODS: Participants were women who have been diagnosed with breast cancer and enrolled in the ongoing Women's Healthy Eating and Living Study. Women (N = 159, average age 57 years) wore an accelerometer for one week and then completed the IPAQ or the PAR. RESULTS: The validity correlation of the PAR was significantly higher (p < 0.001) than the IPAQ (0.73 vs. 0.33, respectively). The PAR and IPAQ overestimated total physical activity by 13% vs. 247%, respectively. The PAR had better sensitivity (p = 0.14) and specificity (p < .01) than the IPAQ (100% vs. 71% and 84% vs. 59%, respectively) in predicting attainment of the ACSM physical activity guideline. CONCLUSION: The PAR was superior to the IPAQ in terms of validity, measurement bias, and screening statistics

Complex population dynamics as a competition between multiple time-scale phenomena

The role of the selection pressure and mutation amplitude on the behavior of a single-species population evolving on a two-dimensional lattice, in a periodically changing environment, is studied both analytically and numerically. The mean-field level of description allows to highlight the delicate interplay between the different time-scale processes in the resulting complex dynamics of the system. We clarify the influence of the amplitude and period of the environmental changes on the critical value of the selection pressure corresponding to a phase-transition "extinct-alive" of the population. However, the intrinsic stochasticity and the dynamically-built in correlations among the individuals, as well as the role of the mutation-induced variety in population's evolution are not appropriately accounted for. A more refined level of description, which is an individual-based one, has to be considered. The inherent fluctuations do not destroy the phase transition "extinct-alive", and the mutation amplitude is strongly influencing the value of the critical selection pressure. The phase diagram in the plane of the population's parameters -- selection and mutation is discussed as a function of the environmental variation characteristics. The differences between a smooth variation of the environment and an abrupt, catastrophic change are also addressesd.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

The effects of childbirth on the pelvic-floor

Basically, vaginal delivery is associated with the risk of pelvic floor damage. The pelvic floor sequelae of childbirth includes anal incontinence, urinary incontinence and pelvic organ prolapse. Pathophysiology, incidence and risk factors for the development of the respective problems are reviewed. Where possible, recommendations for reducing the risk of pelvic floor damage are given

Performance of LED-Based Fluorescence Microscopy to Diagnose Tuberculosis in a Peripheral Health Centre in Nairobi.

Sputum microscopy is the only tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic available at peripheral levels of care in resource limited countries. Its sensitivity is low, particularly in high HIV prevalence settings. Fluorescence microscopy (FM) can improve performance of microscopy and with the new light emitting diode (LED) technologies could be appropriate for peripheral settings. The study aimed to compare the performance of LED-FM versus Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) microscopy and to assess feasibility of LED-FM at a low level of care in a high HIV prevalence country

Prospects for Gene lntrogression from Hordeum bulbosum L. into Barley (H. vulgare L.).

Hybridizations between Hordeum vulgare L. (cultivated barley) and H. bulbosum L. have been performed over many years with two aims. First, the production of doubled haploid barley cultivars (Kasha and Kao 1970); second, the transfer of desirable traits such as resistance to fungal and viral pathogens from the wild species into barley. Apart from the report of an occasional recombinant (Xu and Kasha 1992; Pickering et al 1994), successful gene introgression has been hampered by several barriers. In this report we will describe recent progress in overcoming these barriers

Branching on multi-aggregated variables

open5siopenGamrath, Gerald; Melchiori, Anna; Berthold, Timo; Gleixner, Ambros M.; Salvagnin, DomenicoGamrath, Gerald; Melchiori, Anna; Berthold, Timo; Gleixner, Ambros M.; Salvagnin, Domenic

Fur seal microbiota are shaped by the social and physical environment, show mother‐offspring similarities and are associated with host genetic quality

Despite an increasing appreciation of the importance of host‐microbe interactions in ecological and evolutionary processes, the factors shaping microbial communities in wild populations remain poorly understood. We therefore exploited a natural experiment provided by two adjacent Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) colonies of high and low social density and combined 16S rRNA metabarcoding with microsatellite profiling of mother‐offspring pairs to investigate environmental and genetic influences on skin microbial communities. Seal‐associated bacterial communities differed profoundly between the two colonies, despite the host populations themselves being genetically undifferentiated. Consistent with the hypothesis that social stress depresses bacterial diversity, we found that microbial alpha diversity was significantly lower in the high‐density colony. Seals from one of the colonies that contained a stream also carried a subset of freshwater‐associated bacteria, indicative of an influence of the physical environment. Furthermore, mothers and their offspring shared similar microbial communities, in support of the notion that microbes may facilitate mother‐offspring recognition. Finally, a significant negative association was found between bacterial diversity and heterozygosity, a measure of host genetic quality. Our study thus uncovers a complex interplay between environmental and host genetic effects, while also providing empirical support for the leash model of host control, which posits that bacterial communities are driven not only by bottom‐up species interactions, but also by top‐down host regulation. Taken together, our findings have broad implications for understanding host‐microbe interactions as well as prokaryotic diversity in general